World – “The likelihood of a recession in 2020 is 30%,” stated Ben May, director, Global Macro Research at Oxford economics speaking in London last month at the LMC Automotive Global Truck forecasting day.

May said there was most definitely a global slowdown in the world economy and one of the key reasons for this was the rise in tensions between the US and China and, to a lesser extent, a few other economies. However, even with additional tariffs, the negative impact on GDP growth in respective countries is forecast at less than -0.5% and -0.9% in 2020. Another key factor has been the slowdown in China, as there have been more fundamental factors affecting GDP such as its large financial debt that has been built up over past decade. To change this, in recent years the Chinese government has tried to change the nature of growth in the economy, moving away from heavy industry and moving towards consumer spending. Concerns over the high level of debt has led to attempts to reign in bank lending within the economy as well as the shadow banking sector. Subsequently the 10% growth rates in China seen a decade are long gone, said May.