European truck market outlook clouds over, says Zita Zigan at GlobalData


By Zita Zigan - 6th November 2023

European truck market outlook clouds over, says Zita Zigan at GlobalData

Chart showing truck sales (>6t gvw) in Europe (EU+ CH, NO & UK) from 2018 to October 2023 and the impact of Smart Tachograph legislation on sales. (Source: Global Data).

UK / Europe - The EU+ truck market has been performing strongly in 2023, but leading indicators point to a slowdown in underlying demand drivers: EU industrial production declined by 2.4% in July and by 4.4% in August; meanwhile, PMIs (Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Indices) and survey data (ifo Business Climate Index for Germany) are at levels that have historically been consistent with recession, writes Zita Zigan, Director, Global Commercial Vehicle Forecasts, GlobalData.

Nonetheless, the European truck market appeared to defy deteriorating macro conditions this summer as selling rates rose sharply. This was not solely, or even primarily, a matter of pent-up demand becoming unleashed as supply constraints continued to ease. The recent spike in selling rates coincided with the EU Smart Tachograph 2.0 mandate (an element of the EU Mobility Package raft of legislation), which came into effect in August. The impetus resulting from the mandate affected not only core intra-EU markets, but the entire region, including Norway, Switzerland, and the UK.

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