UK – At the end of January, the European Commission kicked off a series of strategic dialogues with business leaders from the automotive industry to review regulations which set mandatory CO₂ emission targets for newly-registered vehicles. For cars and vans, the fleet-wide average emissions of new vehicles sold by manufacturers must be reduced by 15% compared to 2021. This target will be enforced in 2025, with a penalty of EUR95 for every g/km exceeded. In a press release, the European Automobile Manufacturers’ Association (ACEA) alleges that car and van manufacturers could face fines of up to EUR16bn this year for failing to comply with the regulation. According to the ACEA, OEMs are subject to “hefty fines for conditions that are outside of their control, such as the insufficient rollout of recharging and hydrogen refilling infrastructure”.

Europe’s truck and bus manufacturers must also meet a 15% reduction target this year. Felipe Rocha, General Manager - Europe On-Highway and Bill Lamb, Director - Engine Business Platform Strategy – both from Cummins – believe that the commercial vehicle industry will be able to meet the 2025 target with the product mix and technology available today. However, they expect that the next target – a 43% reduction starting in 2030 – will not be achieved without a drastic transformation of the market. Echoing the opinion of the ACEA, Lamb told Truck & Bus Builder that “the rollout of infrastructure for both electric and hydrogen vehicles is slower than will be needed to meet the 2030 target”. Whereas only a couple of years ago, the industry was betting on battery and fuel cell electric technologies to achieve these fleet-wide reduction targets, manufacturers today are seriously considering alternatives that may be more acceptable to a market which, so far, has been hesitant to adopt zero-emission vehicles at scale. While the regulatory pressure to make the shift is very strong, barriers such as the lack of infrastructure, the higher upfront cost of an electric vehicle have dissuaded fleets from taking the plunge. (It is worth noting too that the regulatory pressure is squarely on OEMs to produce and sell more EVs, and not on fleets to buy them – i.e., supply-side rather than demand-side.)