USA  – You can’t pick up a newspaper or turn on the news without hearing about President Trump’s latest actions. The return of the Donald has shocked the world, sending shivers down the spines of those in the U.S. clean transportation industry. Immediately the Trump regime withdrew the country from the Paris Agreement as well as the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. This is all under the mandate of “Unleashing American Energy” whilst reducing the stranglehold of climate change policies on American industry.

We have already seen North American zero-emission vehicle OEMs such as electric van manufacturer Canoo Inc file for bankruptcy on the very first day of the second Trump Presidency (January 20, 2025) as a direct result of an Executive Order freezing zero-emission vehicle subsidies. This was preceded by Hyzon Motors, which announced it was being liquidated at the start of the year and then it was proceeded by Nikola Corporation, which entered Chapter 11 protection in February after more than a billion dollars of investment! Over the border, it has been a torrid time for Canadian / American electric vehicle manufacturer, The Lion Electric Co, which cut 300 jobs late last year. Things got worse for the OEM as the company formally defaulted on its credit repayments to creditors and was forced to obtain creditor protection under the Companies' Creditors Arrangement Act (CCAA) in Canada whilst simultaneously filing for Chapter 15 bankruptcy in the United States.

Canoo LDV 130

This article examines President Trump's recent actions and policy changes impacting the clean transportation space (environmental policies, zero-emission CV EV mandates, energy regulation, and infrastructure programmes) and their impact on the electric truck, van, bus, and school bus markets in the U.S. T&BB acknowledges that the full extent of these changes is not yet clear, but they are clearly having an immediate impact already.

President Biden’s Administration (2021 – 2025)

President Biden’s policies significantly supported the zero-emission commercial vehicle industry in the U.S. through a combination of incentives, regulations, and infrastructure investments to support the adoption of electric and hydrogen-powered commercial vehicles. We have to start with the granddaddy (in terms of actual funding dollars) of funding schemes, the Federal Inflation Reduction Act, a subsidy programme designed to stimulate American production. Contained in the bill were tax credits for Commercial EVs (Commercial Clean Vehicle Credit). The Federal government provided up to USD 7,500 for light-duty (vans) and USD 40,000 in tax credits for electric trucks (medium and heavy duty) and buses, making them more financially viable for fleet operators.

President Biden’s Executive Order

There was of course an American assembly requirement: “Vehicles must be assembled in America to qualify.” The same applied to the battery component sourcing, “at least 60% of the battery components must be manufactured or assembled in North America”, reducing reliance on foreign supply chains (mainly China) and lowering electric CV (Commercial Vehicle) costs. To put this into perspective, the Clean Heavy-Duty Vehicles Grant Program, through the EPA (Environmental Protection Agency) allocated USD 735 million to assist in the purchase of over 2,400 zero-emission Class 6 and 7 vehicles. These subsidies aimed to accelerate the adoption of zero-emission vehicles in the commercial sector, reduce emissions, and promote cleaner transportation options across the country.

EPA HQ in Washington

We know that clean energy vehicles need the necessary charging/refuelling network to support widespread adoption, an issue the European Union is grappling with currently. Through the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, USD 5 billion was earmarked in the National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure (NEVI) program, to build a nationwide charging network, making long-haul electric trucking more practical. There were also specific funds earmarked for zero-emission buses to help transit agencies replace diesel buses with electric models. The same goes for the EPA’s Clean School Bus Grant Programme, which greatly benefited North American electric school bus manufacturers such as Blue Bird Corp, Thomas Built Buses Inc, Collins Bus Corporation, Lion Electric Co, Navistar International Corporation, GreenPower Motor Company Inc and Phoenix Motor Inc.

Blue Bird All American Electric School Bus

In terms of mandates and green HDV (Heavy-Duty Vehicle) regulations, under Biden the EPA introduced stricter emissions standards for heavy-duty trucks (2027 model year and beyond), forcing manufacturers to develop lower-emission and electric alternatives or face potential fines, much like in the EU. This also encompassed Federal fleet purchases, pressuring the industry to transition. The Federal Fleet Transition ordered all new Federal vehicle purchases to be zero-emission by 2035, impacting postal services and government vehicle suppliers. This was of course all designed to phase out diesel ICE vehicles. There were also several grants for battery research projects and recycling initiatives to improve electric truck efficiency.

To summarise, the overall impact on the U.S. zero-emission CV industry under the Presidency of Joe Biden was an increased investment in EV production with legacy automakers ramping up electric truck, bus and school bus manufacturing. This resulted in the acceleration of fleet (both public and private) transitions to electric with many major logistics firms (Amazon, UPS, FedEx) shifting to electric fleets with government support. Infrastructure investment saw several electric charging stations rolled out to support the electric heavy-duty truck industry. There was of course some pushback from OEMs against the EV mandates citing that they were too aggressive and costly, again, similar wranglings are going on in Europe between the EU Commission and the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association (ACEA).

ACEA HQ Brussels

Trump, Tariffs and Manufacturing

We have heard Trump say that “tariff is the most beautiful word in the dictionary”. Well, he didn’t wait long to impose a 25% tariff on steel and a 10% tariff on aluminium imports in an attempt to make the U.S. steel industry more competitive. This will increase production costs for automakers and commercial vehicle manufacturers. Industry leaders have expressed concerns that these tariffs disrupt supply chains and negatively impact profits, potentially hindering the advancement of zero-emission vehicle production.

Trump tariff on steel and aluminium imports

EV Mandates and Subsidies

On the 20^th of January 2025, President Trump signed an executive order aiming to "eliminate the electric vehicle (EV) mandate”. However, this order alone cannot immediately undo existing regulations and laws. Whilst the Clean Vehicle Tax Credit program continues to offer significant incentives for new electric commercial vehicles, these recent legislative proposals and executive actions suggest potential changes.

These proposals certainly indicate a shift in policy, but any changes to the tax credits still require legislative approval. Senate Republicans have introduced bills aiming to eliminate the USD 40,000 tax credit for new electric trucks and the USD 7,500 tax credit for electric vans. At the time of writing this piece, U.S. consumers purchasing qualifying EVs can still benefit from existing Federal tax credits.

U.S Congress

The potential repeal of these credits has raised concerns within the automotive industry. Notably, Ford CEO Jim Farley warned that eliminating these tax credits could lead to job losses and increased production costs, especially with the new steel and aluminium tariffs. This potential policy change could significantly slow the transition to zero-emission commercial vehicles, by creating uncertainty for manufacturers and investors in the sector. This, coupled with President Trump’s steps to roll back previous Federal EV mandates, reduces the pressure on U.S. automakers to produce more electric vehicles. 

Infrastructure

This month, the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) issued a memo instructing states to halt their implementation plans and "decertify" existing agreements related to the aforementioned National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure (NEVI) program. This suspension affects the deployment of EV charging stations nationwide, with many stations, currently being built, now facing uncertainty. The FHWA plans to issue new guidance aligned with the current administration's policies, with a draft expected for public comment in the spring. The legality of this suspension is under scrutiny, as the NEVI program was authorised by Congress, and altering its course through executive action may face legal challenges. This action is part of a broader effort by the current administration to reassess and potentially reverse policies from the previous administration aimed at promoting electric vehicle adoption through infrastructure development.

Electric truck charging depot in California

State emission standards

The Trump administration has challenged state-specific zero-emission vehicle mandates, particularly targeting California's stringent emissions standards. By revoking waivers that allowed states to set their own regulations, the Federal government has created a uniform, less stringent national standard, which may slow the adoption of zero-emission commercial vehicles. While Federal mandates may have triumphed over state mandates, the states are not obligated to abide by said standards. California still has strong ZEV mandates in place, which could influence the market disproportionally for electric vehicles in those regions that implement similar legislation.  

Gavin Newsom (left) Governor of California and President Trump (right)

The road to Damascus for the U.S. zero-emission CV industry

While the immediate supply and demand impacts on electric trucks and buses are not fully clear, the overall policy direction under the Trump administration appears to be less supportive of electric CV adoption compared to the previous administration. However, many of these changes may face legal challenges or require congressional approval, potentially limiting their immediate effect on the industry.

The fluctuating regulatory landscape is creating uncertainty for companies developing and selling zero-emission commercial vehicles, impacting investment decisions and market growth. Biden’s policies supercharged the zero-emission commercial vehicle industry, but with the new Trump administration rolling back many of these incentives, the future of fleet electrification is uncertain.

Whilst this policy and regulatory uncertainty is mirrored across the pond in Europe, we can only speculate that this plays into the hands of Chinese EV OEMs. China’s commercial vehicle industry has thrived due to strong government support (loans from the Chinese Development Bank), a massive domestic market and supply chain dominance and integration. The Chinese CV industry has successfully vertically integrated multiple stages of the CV supply chain (i.e. body builders. componentry and battery suppliers such as CATL) leading to a successful business strategy, resulting in affordable products (as a result of economies of scale) outcompeting traditional Western OEMs. This makes Chinese brands increasingly fierce competitors in the electric commercial vehicle markets.

Yutong - the biggest bus builder in the world in terms of number of buses produced – has, since 2014, had research centres dedicated to electric motors, battery R&D, charging infrastructure and hydrogen fuel cell and combustion technology. The company is going from strength to strength having brought to market a full range of heavy-duty electric trucks. These products are finding their way into Western markets with Pelican, acting as the sole distributor of Yutong’s battery-electric trucks in the UK  starting in Q2 2025. Whilst there remains uncertainty in Europe and North America, the Chinese have benefited from policy and regulatory certainty under President Xi Jinping. No one knows where this will all lead but as the Chinese proverb goes: “May you live in interesting times.”

Yutong bus factory in Zhengzhou